A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
