A mere eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
