Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
